[
  {
    "factor_id": "wheat-n-rate",
    "crop_id": "wheat",
    "factor": "Nitrogen rate and split application timing",
    "factor_category": "Nutrients",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 24.0,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 18.0,
    "ci_upper": 30.0,
    "conditions": "Calibrated N application (90-130 kg N/ha) with split or post-flag leaf foliar N under adequate moisture in Western Canadian spring wheat.",
    "study_count": 42,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Nitrogen management for spring wheat yield and protein in Western Canada",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.4141/cjps03038",
    "notes": "Elevates grain protein content to >13.5% CWRS benchmarks while maximizing spikelet fertility.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 24.0
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "wheat-biostimulant-humic-amino",
    "crop_id": "wheat",
    "factor": "Biostimulants: Humic substances & protein hydrolysates",
    "factor_category": "Biostimulants",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 11.2,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 7.0,
    "ci_upper": 15.5,
    "conditions": "Foliar and soil application of humic/fulvic acids and plant amino acids at tillering and stem elongation (Zadoks 30-32).",
    "study_count": 18,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "Moderate",
    "prairie_relevance": "moderate",
    "source_title": "Humic substances and plant-derived amino acids enhance wheat physiological resilience and yield under water deficit",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.842782",
    "notes": "Improves nitrogen use efficiency (NUE), photosynthetic electron transport, and grain filling duration under heat.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 11.2
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "wheat-mycorrhizal-pgpr-inoculation",
    "crop_id": "wheat",
    "factor": "Biological inputs: Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi (AMF) & PGPR",
    "factor_category": "Biological inputs",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 9.8,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 5.5,
    "ci_upper": 14.0,
    "conditions": "Inoculation with Rhizophagus irregularis and Azospirillum brasilense in zero-till spring wheat systems.",
    "study_count": 21,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "Moderate",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and bacterial co-inoculation improve spring wheat productivity and phosphorus uptake",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apsoil.2021.104168",
    "notes": "Enhances root surface area, glomalin production, and sparingly soluble orthophosphate acquisition.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 9.8
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "wheat-seeding-density",
    "crop_id": "wheat",
    "factor": "Optimum seeding density (250-350 plants/m2)",
    "factor_category": "Crop establishment",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 13.5,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 8.0,
    "ci_upper": 19.0,
    "conditions": "Seeding targeting 250-350 viable plants/m2 (23-32 plants/ft2) compared to sparse stands (<180 plants/m2).",
    "study_count": 31,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Spring wheat seeding rate, cultivar, and pest management interactions in Western Canada",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.4141/cjps2011-042",
    "notes": "Suppresses wild oats/cleavers, reduces late secondary tillers, and shortens harvest maturity window.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 13.5
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "wheat-fusarium-fungicide",
    "crop_id": "wheat",
    "factor": "Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) fungicide timing at anthesis",
    "factor_category": "Disease management",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 16.8,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 11.0,
    "ci_upper": 22.5,
    "conditions": "Application of triazole/SDHI chemistries at early flowering (Zadoks 60-65) with angled nozzles under FHB-favorable warm, humid conditions.",
    "study_count": 38,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Efficacy of fungicides for Fusarium head blight control and deoxynivalenol reduction in wheat",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-92-9-1336",
    "notes": "Reduces deoxynivalenol (DON) mycotoxin contamination by 45-65% and salvages kernel test weight.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 16.8
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "wheat-drought-stress",
    "crop_id": "wheat",
    "factor": "Terminal drought and heat stress during grain filling",
    "factor_category": "Stress",
    "direction": "negative",
    "effect_type": "yield_loss",
    "effect_size": -27.5,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": -38.0,
    "ci_upper": -17.0,
    "conditions": "Water deficit (<150 mm available moisture) coupled with temperatures >32°C during milk-to-dough stages (Zadoks 71-85).",
    "study_count": 26,
    "evidence_type": "review",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Drought and heat stress in wheat: Physiological mechanisms and breeding strategies",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.plantsci.2015.06.015",
    "notes": "Accelerates leaf senescence, truncates starch granule synthesis, and increases shriveled screenings.",
    "potential_yield_effect": -27.5
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "wheat-organic-price-premium",
    "crop_id": "wheat",
    "factor": "Certification & Profitability: Certified Organic CWRS wheat premium",
    "factor_category": "Economics & Certification",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "price_premium",
    "effect_size": 95.0,
    "effect_unit": "% premium",
    "ci_lower": 70.0,
    "ci_upper": 125.0,
    "conditions": "Certified organic CWRS milling wheat (#1/2 CWRS, 13.5%+ protein) trades at $18.00–$24.50/bu compared to $8.50–$11.00/bu conventional baseline (+70% to +125% premium).",
    "study_count": 16,
    "evidence_type": "economic_benchmark",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Prairie Organic Development Fund & Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture Organic Benchmarks",
    "source_url": "https://prairieorganic.com/",
    "notes": "Organic wheat requires legume green manure rotations (sweetclover/alfalfa/hairy vetch) to supply 80-120 kg N/ha equivalent. Operating costs decrease by $110-150/ac; organic yield reduction averages 20-30%, yielding +25% to +50% net farmgate margins.",
    "potential_yield_effect": -25.0
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "wheat-regenerative-organic-roc",
    "crop_id": "wheat",
    "factor": "Certification & Profitability: Regenerative Organic Certified (ROC) specialty contract premium",
    "factor_category": "Economics & Certification",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "price_premium",
    "effect_size": 25.0,
    "effect_unit": "% premium",
    "ci_lower": 15.0,
    "ci_upper": 35.0,
    "conditions": "Regenerative Organic Certified (ROC) Bronze/Silver/Gold certified wheat contracts command a $3.00–$5.50/bu premium (+15% to +35%) over standard organic baseline for identity-preserved artisan flour and cereal buyers.",
    "study_count": 7,
    "evidence_type": "economic_benchmark",
    "evidence_strength": "Moderate",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Regenerative Organic Alliance (ROA) Farm Economic Survey & Grain Buyer Market Briefs",
    "source_url": "https://regenorganic.org/",
    "notes": "Requires verified soil carbon monitoring, zero synthetic inputs, continuous living cover, and fair-labor social criteria.",
    "potential_yield_effect": null
  }
]