[
  {
    "factor_id": "oats-n-rate",
    "crop_id": "oats",
    "factor": "Nitrogen fertilization rate and lodging avoidance",
    "factor_category": "Nutrients",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 22.0,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 16.0,
    "ci_upper": 28.5,
    "conditions": "Targeting 60-90 kg N/ha in milling oat cultivars; higher rates (>110 kg N/ha) trigger severe lodging on heavy soils.",
    "study_count": 28,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Oat response to nitrogen fertilizer rate, timing and source in Western Canada",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.4141/cjps2012-085",
    "notes": "Excessive N lowers test weight and beta-glucan content while delaying maturity.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 22.0
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "oats-biostimulant-silicon-seaweed",
    "crop_id": "oats",
    "factor": "Biostimulants: Potassium silicate & Ascophyllum nodosum extract",
    "factor_category": "Biostimulants",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 11.0,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 6.5,
    "ci_upper": 15.5,
    "conditions": "Foliar silicon (2-4 kg/ha SiO2) and seaweed extract applied at stem elongation (Zadoks 31-33).",
    "study_count": 14,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "Moderate",
    "prairie_relevance": "moderate",
    "source_title": "Exogenous silicon and seaweed extract improve lodging resistance and yield of Avena sativa",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2021.126388",
    "notes": "Thickens stem sclerenchyma cell walls, reducing lodging by 25-40% and enhancing water use efficiency.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 11.0
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "oats-biologicals-mycorrhizae",
    "crop_id": "oats",
    "factor": "Biological inputs: Arbuscular mycorrhizae & Trichoderma inoculants",
    "factor_category": "Biological inputs",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 8.8,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 4.5,
    "ci_upper": 13.0,
    "conditions": "Seed-applied mycorrhizal consortia in low-input and organic production systems.",
    "study_count": 16,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "Moderate",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Mycorrhizal symbiosis and Trichoderma harzianum co-inoculation improve oat phosphorus nutrition and biomass",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s13199-020-00714-x",
    "notes": "Promotes root biomass expansion, phosphorus uptake, and systemic resistance against soilborne pathogens.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 8.8
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "oats-seeding-date",
    "crop_id": "oats",
    "factor": "Early seeding date (early May vs late May)",
    "factor_category": "Crop establishment",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 17.5,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 12.0,
    "ci_upper": 23.0,
    "conditions": "Seeding into cold soils (4-7°C) in early May vs delayed late May seeding across Saskatchewan and Manitoba.",
    "study_count": 24,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Seeding date effects on oat yield, quality, and crown rust severity on the Canadian Prairies",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.4141/cjps2008-019",
    "notes": "Enables flowering before mid-summer heat stress and allows the crop to mature before autumn frost/rust buildup.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 17.5
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "oats-crown-rust",
    "crop_id": "oats",
    "factor": "Crown rust (Puccinia coronata) infection & fungicide protection",
    "factor_category": "Disease management",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 18.6,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 12.5,
    "ci_upper": 25.0,
    "conditions": "Foliar fungicide application at flag leaf emergence under rust-favorable warm southerly wind spore transport.",
    "study_count": 21,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Efficacy of foliar fungicides in managing crown rust and preserving milling quality in oats",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-04-18-0621-RE",
    "notes": "Untreated crown rust reduces test weight by 3-6 lb/bu and thin kernel percentage rises sharply.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 18.6
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "oats-panicle-drought-stress",
    "crop_id": "oats",
    "factor": "Moisture deficit during panicle emergence and anthesis",
    "factor_category": "Stress",
    "direction": "negative",
    "effect_type": "yield_loss",
    "effect_size": -25.5,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": -36.0,
    "ci_upper": -16.0,
    "conditions": "Severe drought during boot-to-heading stages (Zadoks 45-55) causing spikelet sterility.",
    "study_count": 17,
    "evidence_type": "review",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Drought stress during oat reproductive development: Impact on panicle fertility and groat yield",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2018.10.004",
    "notes": "Oats have higher water requirement than barley/wheat; severe drought induces blasted florets and light test weight.",
    "potential_yield_effect": -25.5
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "oats-organic-milling-premium",
    "crop_id": "oats",
    "factor": "Certification & Profitability: Certified Organic milling oat contract premium",
    "factor_category": "Economics & Certification",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "price_premium",
    "effect_size": 90.0,
    "effect_unit": "% premium",
    "ci_lower": 70.0,
    "ci_upper": 120.0,
    "conditions": "Certified organic food-grade milling oats (>38 lb/bu, <2% thins) command $8.50–$12.50/bu compared to conventional baseline of $4.25–$6.00/bu (+70% to +120% premium) delivered to Prairie processors (e.g. Richardson, Grain Millers, Paterson).",
    "study_count": 15,
    "evidence_type": "economic_benchmark",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Organic Oat Production & Market Economics Benchmark Report (Prairie Organic Development Fund)",
    "source_url": "https://prairieorganic.com/",
    "notes": "Oats are one of the most profitable and agronomic organic cereal crops on the Canadian Prairies due to strong weed competition and modest nitrogen needs following legume green manures. Organic yield discount is minimal (10-18%), delivering +45% to +85% net returns per acre.",
    "potential_yield_effect": -15.0
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "oats-gluten-free-purity-protocol",
    "crop_id": "oats",
    "factor": "Certification & Profitability: Certified Gluten-Free Purity Protocol contract premium",
    "factor_category": "Economics & Certification",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "price_premium",
    "effect_size": 22.0,
    "effect_unit": "% premium",
    "ci_lower": 14.0,
    "ci_upper": 30.0,
    "conditions": "Dedicated Purity Protocol gluten-free certified production contracts pay a $1.25–$2.25/bu premium (+14% to +30%) over standard conventional or organic oats for verified <5-10 ppm gluten threshold.",
    "study_count": 9,
    "evidence_type": "economic_benchmark",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Gluten-Free Oats Purity Protocol Standard & Market Economics (Canadian Celiac Association & Oat Processors)",
    "source_url": "https://www.celiac.ca/",
    "notes": "Requires clean field history (no wheat/barley/rye for 2-3 years), dedicated planting/harvesting equipment sanitization, and third-party ELISA batch testing.",
    "potential_yield_effect": null
  }
]