[
  {
    "factor_id": "dairy-ndf-digestibility",
    "crop_id": "dairy",
    "factor": "Forage neutral detergent fiber digestibility (NDFD30 >55%)",
    "factor_category": "Animal nutrition",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 14.5,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 10.0,
    "ci_upper": 19.5,
    "conditions": "Feeding high-digestibility forages (BMR corn silage, early-cut alfalfa with 30-hour NDFD >55-60%) in high-producing lactating Holstein diets.",
    "study_count": 34,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Impact of forage fiber digestibility on dry matter intake, milk yield, and energy partitioning in lactating dairy cows",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2018-15421",
    "notes": "Every 1% increase in diet NDFD results in +0.17 kg/day higher dry matter intake and +0.25 kg/day fat-corrected milk (FCM).",
    "potential_yield_effect": 14.5
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "dairy-biostimulant-rumen-yeast-buffers",
    "crop_id": "dairy",
    "factor": "Biostimulants: Rumen-active live yeast (S. cerevisiae) & dietary buffers",
    "factor_category": "Biostimulants",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 8.5,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 5.0,
    "ci_upper": 12.0,
    "conditions": "Supplementing 5-10 g/head/day live yeast combined with sodium bicarbonate buffers in high-starch lactating total mixed rations (TMR).",
    "study_count": 30,
    "evidence_type": "meta_analysis",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Effects of live yeast supplementation on milk production, rumen pH dynamics, and enteric methane emissions in dairy cows: A meta-analysis",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2019-17845",
    "notes": "Reduces subacute ruminal acidosis (SARA), boosts butterfat synthesis by +0.15-0.25 percentage points, and elevates daily milk yield by 1.2-1.8 kg/cow.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 8.5
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "dairy-heat-stress-abatement",
    "crop_id": "dairy",
    "factor": "Active barn ventilation, fans & soaking sprinklers (THI <68)",
    "factor_category": "Housing / animal environment",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 19.0,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 13.0,
    "ci_upper": 25.0,
    "conditions": "High-volume low-speed (HVLS) fans and feedbunk soaking lines activated whenever Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) exceeds 68.",
    "study_count": 31,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Economic evaluation of cooling systems for lactating dairy cows under temperate and continental summer microclimates",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2017-13334",
    "notes": "Prevents heat-induced dry matter intake crashes (-15 to -25%) and maintains peak lactation persistency.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 19.0
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "dairy-transition-calcium",
    "crop_id": "dairy",
    "factor": "Transition cow negative DCAD diet & subclinical hypocalcemia prevention",
    "factor_category": "Animal health",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 12.0,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 7.5,
    "ci_upper": 16.5,
    "conditions": "Feeding negative Dietary Cation-Anion Difference (DCAD: -10 to -15 mEq/100g DM) diets to close-up dry cows (last 21 days pre-calving).",
    "study_count": 29,
    "evidence_type": "meta_analysis",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Meta-analysis of dietary cation-anion difference (DCAD) on transition dairy cow health and milk production",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2019-17024",
    "notes": "Prevents clinical/subclinical milk fever, ketosis, and displaced abomasum; increases 305-day cumulative lactation yield.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 12.0
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "dairy-subclinical-mastitis-scc",
    "crop_id": "dairy",
    "factor": "Subclinical mastitis & Somatic Cell Count (SCC <150k cells/mL) control",
    "factor_category": "Disease management",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 16.0,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 10.5,
    "ci_upper": 21.5,
    "conditions": "Maintaining bulk tank SCC <150,000 cells/mL through pre/post milking teat disinfection, clean sand bedding, and automated cluster flushing.",
    "study_count": 33,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Quantifying the milk production loss associated with elevated somatic cell count across lactations in dairy cattle",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.3168/jds.2017-13556",
    "notes": "Every doubling of SCC above 100,000 cells/mL causes a 1.5-2.0% loss in daily milk yield due to alveolar epithelial damage.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 16.0
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "dairy-organic-milk-quota-premium",
    "crop_id": "dairy",
    "factor": "Certification & Profitability: Certified Organic Milk pool quota blend price premium",
    "factor_category": "Economics & Certification",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "price_premium",
    "effect_size": 36.0,
    "effect_unit": "% premium",
    "ci_lower": 25.0,
    "ci_upper": 48.0,
    "conditions": "Certified organic farmgate milk under Canadian supply management (WMP / P5) commands $118–$138/hL compared to conventional blend price baseline of $85–$98/hL (+25% to +48% premium).",
    "study_count": 18,
    "evidence_type": "economic_benchmark",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Dairy Farmers of Canada & Agri-Food Economic Systems Cost of Production Benchmarks",
    "source_url": "https://dairyfarmersofcanada.ca/",
    "notes": "Organic dairy cows require 100% certified organic feed (costing 60-90% more per tonne) and mandatory pasture grazing during seasonal forage periods. Per-cow milk yields are typically 10-20% lower (8,000-9,000 kg/lactation vs 10,500-11,500 kg conventional), with net profit per hectolitre remaining competitive or superior depending on on-farm feed production capabilities.",
    "potential_yield_effect": -15.0
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "dairy-milk-quality-scc-bonus",
    "crop_id": "dairy",
    "factor": "Certification & Profitability: Milk Quality Bonus & low Somatic Cell Count payout",
    "factor_category": "Economics & Certification",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "price_premium",
    "effect_size": 5.0,
    "effect_unit": "% premium",
    "ci_lower": 3.0,
    "ci_upper": 8.0,
    "conditions": "Provincial milk marketing boards award quality incentive premiums of $1.50–$3.50/hL for monthly weighted average bulk milk Somatic Cell Count (SCC) under 150,000-200,000 cells/mL and zero inhibitor residues.",
    "study_count": 12,
    "evidence_type": "economic_benchmark",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Alberta Milk & Dairy Farmers of Ontario Milk Quality Incentive Program Benchmarks",
    "source_url": "https://albertamilk.com/",
    "notes": "Directly adds $12,000–$35,000 annually to net revenues for an average 100-cow dairy herd while eliminating severe penalty deductions.",
    "potential_yield_effect": null
  }
]