[
  {
    "factor_id": "canola-n-rate",
    "crop_id": "canola",
    "factor": "Nitrogen application rate and split timing",
    "factor_category": "Nutrients",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 28.5,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 22.0,
    "ci_upper": 35.0,
    "conditions": "Optimal economic nitrogen rate (120-160 kg N/ha) under Prairie rainfed moisture (>250 mm). Split applications or enhanced-efficiency urea mitigate volatilization and leaching.",
    "study_count": 34,
    "evidence_type": "meta_analysis",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Meta-analysis of nitrogen fertilizer response and nitrogen use efficiency in Brassica napus across Western Canada",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.4141/cjps-2015-089",
    "notes": "Yield response exhibits diminishing returns beyond 150 kg N/ha; requires balanced sulfur (N:S ratio 6:1) to prevent nitrogen assimilation bottlenecks.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 28.5
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "canola-sulfur-nutrition",
    "crop_id": "canola",
    "factor": "Sulfur and phosphorus balanced nutrition",
    "factor_category": "Nutrients",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 18.2,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 12.5,
    "ci_upper": 24.0,
    "conditions": "Application of 15-30 kg S/ha as sulfate-S on S-deficient Luvisolic and Chernozemic soils. Canola requires high sulfur for glucosinolate and protein synthesis.",
    "study_count": 28,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Sulfur fertilization of Brassica napus on Gray Luvisols and Dark Brown Chernozems",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.4141/cjps91-118",
    "notes": "Sulfur deficiency severely induces pod abortion, purpling of leaves, and reduces oil concentration.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 18.2
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "canola-biostimulant-gaba-seaweed",
    "crop_id": "canola",
    "factor": "Biostimulants: Foliar GABA, seaweed extract & amino acids",
    "factor_category": "Biostimulants",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 14.6,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 9.0,
    "ci_upper": 20.2,
    "conditions": "Foliar application of gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA, 25-50 mM) and Ascophyllum nodosum extract prior to bolting and early flowering under moisture deficit.",
    "study_count": 16,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "Moderate",
    "prairie_relevance": "moderate",
    "source_title": "Foliar gamma-aminobutyric acid enhances antioxidant defense and yield performance of canola under drought stress",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-61961-1",
    "notes": "Upregulates superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT), reducing stress-induced floral abortion.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 14.6
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "canola-bio-seed-priming-pgpr",
    "crop_id": "canola",
    "factor": "Biological inputs: Melatonin priming & PGPR seed treatments",
    "factor_category": "Biological inputs",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 11.8,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 6.5,
    "ci_upper": 17.0,
    "conditions": "Seed treatment with Bacillus velezensis / Pseudomonas putida and melatonin priming in cold Prairie spring soils (<8°C).",
    "study_count": 12,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "Moderate",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Melatonin seed priming enhanced drought and cold tolerance in rapeseed cultivars",
    "source_url": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/42230725/",
    "notes": "Accelerates uniform stand emergence, root branching, and early P uptake, shortening the vulnerable flea beetle window.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 11.8
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "canola-plant-density",
    "crop_id": "canola",
    "factor": "Target plant population density (50-80 plants/m2)",
    "factor_category": "Crop establishment",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 15.4,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 10.0,
    "ci_upper": 21.0,
    "conditions": "Seeding at 50-80 plants/m2 (5-8 plants/ft2) at shallow depth (1.2-2.5 cm) vs low density stand (<30 plants/m2).",
    "study_count": 22,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Impact of plant density and seeding depth on canola stand uniformity and yield",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.4141/cjps2014-049",
    "notes": "Optimizes main raceme branching, synchronizes flowering, suppresses weeds, and reduces time to maturity by 3-5 days.",
    "potential_yield_effect": 15.4
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "canola-sclerotinia-fungicide",
    "crop_id": "canola",
    "factor": "Sclerotinia stem rot fungicide timing (20-50% bloom)",
    "factor_category": "Disease management",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "yield_gain",
    "effect_size": 19.5,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": 13.0,
    "ci_upper": 26.0,
    "conditions": "Foliar fungicide application (boscalid, prothioconazole) at 20-50% bloom under high-humidity, dense canopy conditions.",
    "study_count": 25,
    "evidence_type": "field_trial",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Epidemiology and chemical control of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum in canola",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/07060660609507311",
    "notes": "Prevents fungal colonization of fallen petals and stem lesion girdling; greatest ROI under high yield potential (>45 bu/ac).",
    "potential_yield_effect": 19.5
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "canola-drought-heat-stress",
    "crop_id": "canola",
    "factor": "Heat and drought stress during flowering and pod fill",
    "factor_category": "Stress",
    "direction": "negative",
    "effect_type": "yield_loss",
    "effect_size": -32.0,
    "effect_unit": "%",
    "ci_lower": -44.0,
    "ci_upper": -20.0,
    "conditions": "Daily maximum temperatures >28-30°C coupled with soil moisture tension >100 kPa during anthesis and silique expansion.",
    "study_count": 19,
    "evidence_type": "review",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "Heat stress effects on reproductive development and oil yield in Brassica napus",
    "source_url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.08.012",
    "notes": "Induces microspore abortion, tapetal degeneration, reduced seed size, and lowered oil desaturation.",
    "potential_yield_effect": -32.0
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "canola-organic-price-premium",
    "crop_id": "canola",
    "factor": "Certification & Profitability: Certified Organic price premium vs conventional canola",
    "factor_category": "Economics & Certification",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "price_premium",
    "effect_size": 115.0,
    "effect_unit": "% premium",
    "ci_lower": 90.0,
    "ci_upper": 145.0,
    "conditions": "Certified organic Brassica napus/rapa commands farmgate prices of $28.00–$38.00/bu compared to $13.50–$16.00/bu conventional baseline (+90% to +145% premium) across Canadian Prairie crushing and export terminals.",
    "study_count": 14,
    "evidence_type": "economic_benchmark",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "AgriProfit$ Cost and Returns Benchmark & Saskatchewan Organic Crop Production Economics",
    "source_url": "https://www.saskatchewan.ca/business/agriculture-natural-resources-and-industry/agribusiness-farmers-and-ranchers/farm-business-management/crop-planning-guide",
    "notes": "Organic canola requires non-GMO verified seed and strict biological pest control. Production cost savings from synthetic nitrogen ($140-190/ac) and pesticides ($60-90/ac) are offset by rotary hoeing/cultivation ($35/ac) and green manure cover crops ($40/ac). Organic yield gap averages 25-35%, yielding +30% to +65% higher net operating margins per acre.",
    "potential_yield_effect": -30.0
  },
  {
    "factor_id": "canola-non-gmo-identity-preserved",
    "crop_id": "canola",
    "factor": "Certification & Profitability: Non-GMO Project Verified & IP export premium",
    "factor_category": "Economics & Certification",
    "direction": "positive",
    "effect_type": "price_premium",
    "effect_size": 15.0,
    "effect_unit": "% premium",
    "ci_lower": 10.0,
    "ci_upper": 22.0,
    "conditions": "Identity Preserved (IP) non-GMO conventional canola contracts command a $1.50–$3.00/bu cash premium (+10% to +22%) above ICE futures for European and specialty food-grade export markets.",
    "study_count": 8,
    "evidence_type": "economic_benchmark",
    "evidence_strength": "High",
    "prairie_relevance": "high",
    "source_title": "AAFC Grain Market Outlook & Canola Council of Canada Identity Preserved Value-Added Markets",
    "source_url": "https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/sector-overview/market-reports-analysis",
    "notes": "Requires dedicated seed cleanouts, certified non-GM seed, and segregation testing with PCR testing thresholds (<0.9% adventitious presence).",
    "potential_yield_effect": null
  }
]